Oral

IACS

C07 - Glaciers, glacial lakes and water resources in High Mountain Asia

Spatio-temporal evolution of glaciers in the Tarim River Basin: synergistic drive of climate and human activities

Based on data from the First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventories, the Third Scientific Expedition Glacier Inventory data of Xinjiang, and land use classification data from 1980 to 2022, this study analyzed glacier changes in the Tarim River Basin. It further explored the relationship between glacier changes and climate as well as human activities by incorporating temperature, precipitation factors, and human land use. The results of the study show that: (1) The Tarim River Basin has 12,716 glaciers, with a total area of 17,690.46 km�� and an ice volume of 1,905.08 km��. Among these, the Hotan River Basin has the most abundant glacier resources, accounting for 29.37%, 31.50%, and 27.93% of the total basin area, number of glaciers, and ice volume, respectively. In contrast, the Kaidu River Basin has the least glacier resources, accounting for 2.02%, 5.88%, and 0.87% of the totals. (2) Glaciers with an area of less than 0.5 km�� are the most numerous in the Tarim River Basin, totaling 8,223 and accounting for 64.67% of the total glacier count. Glacier area is mainly concentrated in the 1?5 km�� and 10?50 km�� ranges, together accounting for 48.15% of the total. Glaciers are primarily distributed at altitudes between 5,000 and 6,000 m. (3) Over the past 50 years, the glacier area and ice volume in the Tarim River Basin have decreased by 3,793.32 km�� and 344.61 km��, respectively, representing 21.44% and 18.09% of the total. The ice volume loss rate is 68.92 km�� per decade and 3.61% per decade. (4) Glacier melting is most severe at altitudes below 4,000 meters, with a retreat area of 1,152.39 km��, accounting for 53.36% of the total glacier area at this altitude. South-facing glaciers experienced the largest reduction, with a retreat area of 927.45 km��, representing 40.66% of the total retreat, and the main retreat slope angle is concentrated between 20�� and 25��. (5) Glacier changes in the Tarim River Basin are the result of the combined effects of climate and human activities. In 2010, precipitation in the Tarim River Basin peaked at 140.50 mm, leading to some glacier accumulation, but the overall trend remains one of melting, with accumulation being less than ablation. At the same time, under the backdrop of global warming, temperatures in the basin have risen year by year, significantly impacting glacier melting. Comparatively, the contribution of climate warming outweighs that of human land use, and the impact of temperature on glaciers far exceeds that of precipitation.