Oral

IAMAS

JMC13 - Tropical-polar interactions under rapid climate change: Processes and influences

Forthcoming tipping point of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and its climate impacts

Growing attention to decarbonization to limit global warming raises an important question of whether climate mitigation efforts could effectively prevent a potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major tipping element in the climate system. Based on simulations with CO2 stabilization and zero-emission scenarios, here we show marked divergent evolution of the AMOC, towards either recovery or multi-century collapsed state, depending on the timing of mitigation actions. That is, a slight delay in initiating these actions could push the AMOC to cross a tipping point and collapse, aided by the basin-wide salt-advection feedback. In addition, our findings reveal a critical role of stochastic noise accumulation near the stability threshold of the AMOC. This study underscores high uncertainties in future climate projections in response to climate mitigation efforts and highlights the urgent need for strong and immediate international actions.