Oral

IAMAS

JPM03 - Ocean and climate seamless forecasting

A short-term prediction system based on the earth system model FIO-ESM v2.0

The climate model is an important tool for simulating and predicting the mean state and variability within the climate system. The First Institute of Oceanography-Climate Prediction System version 2.0 (FIO-CPS v2.0) has been developed based on the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2.0, which is characterized by its coupled ocean - wave dynamics, incorporating unique physical processes such as wave-induced mixing, stokes drift, sea spray, and realistic diurnal variations in SST. FIO-CPS v2.0 comprises an assimilation module that employs the nudging method to assimilate the Centennial in situ Observation-Based Estimates of daily SST spanning from 1948 to 1981, along with the daily Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) v2.1 data from 1982 to the present. FIO-CPS v2.0 provides prediction results once a month with a finer resolution. Each prediction covers a period of the subsequent 13 months and consists of 10 ensembles. Hindcast experiments were conducted, and an in-depth analysis of its prediction capabilities was conducted, leveraging over 40 years of experimental data. The results indicate that FIO-CPS v2.0 exhibits a high skill in predicting the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ocean heat waves and surface air temperature. Specifically, the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of the Ni?o3.4 index, which represents the prediction skill, exceeds 0.78 at the 6-month lead time. The prediction products have been practically applied in national and regional operational centers, directly contributing to climate change mitigation efforts and providing support for major national events.