Abstract
Comment
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Oral
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IAMAS
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M10 - Middle Atmosphere Symposium
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Global impacts of an extreme solar particle event under different geomagnetic field strengths
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1. Pavle , Arsenovi?*, Institute of Meteorology and Climatology,Department of Water,Atmosphere,and Environment,BOKU University,Vienna 1180,Austria
2. Eugene , Rozanov, Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos und World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC),Davos 7260,Switzerland
3. Ilya , Usoskin, Space Physics and Astronomy Research Unit,University of Oulu,Oulu 90014,Finland
4. Chris , Turney, Institute for Sustainable Futures,Division of Research,University of Technology Sydney,Ultimo,NSW 2007,Australia
5. Timofei , Sukhodolov, Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos und World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC),Davos 7260,Switzerland
6. Ken , McCracken, Institute for Sustainable Futures,Division of Research,University of Technology Sydney,Ultimo,NSW 2007,Australia
7. Marina , Friedel, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science,ETH,Zurich 8092,Switzerland
8. Julien , Anet, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology,MeteoSwiss,Zurich 8058,Switzerland
9. Stana , Simi?, Institute of Meteorology and Climatology,Department of Water,Atmosphere,and Environment,BOKU University,Vienna 1180,Austria
10. Ville , Maliniemi, Water,Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit,University of Oulu,Oulu 90014,Finland
11. Tatiana Egorova , Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos und World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos 7260, Switzerland
12. Monika Korte, Department, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam ? Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam 14473, Germany
13. Harald Rieder, Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, Department of Water, Atmosphere, and Environment, BOKU University, Vienna 1180, Austria
14. Alan Cooper, Gulbali Institute, Charles Sturt University, Albury, NSW 2640, Australia
15. Thomas Peter, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich 8092, Switzerland
*Presenting Author
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Solar particle events (SPEs) are short-lived bursts of high-energy particles from the solar atmosphere and are widely recognized as posing significant economic risks to modern society. Most SPEs are relatively weak and have minor impacts on the Earths environment, but historic records contain much stronger SPEs which have the potential to alter atmospheric chemistry, impacting climate and biological life. The impacts of such strong SPEs would be far more severe when the Earths protective geomagnetic field is weak, such as during past geomagnetic excursions or reversals. Here, we model the impacts of an extreme SPE under different geomagnetic field strengths, focusing on changes in atmospheric chemistry and surface radiation using the atmosphere?ocean?chemistry?climate model SOCOL3-MPIOM and the radiation transfer model LibRadtran. Under current geomagnetic conditions, an extreme SPE would increase NOx concentrations in the polar stratosphere and mesosphere, causing reductions in extratropical stratospheric ozone lasting for about a year. In contrast, with no geomagnetic field, there would be a substantial increase in NOx throughout the entire atmosphere, resulting in severe stratospheric ozone depletion for several years. The resulting ground-level ultraviolet (UV) radiation would remain elevated for up to 6 y, leading to increases in UV index up to 20 to 25% and solar-induced DNA damage rates by 40 to 50%. The potential evolutionary impacts of past extreme SPEs remain an important question, while the risks they pose to human health in modern conditions continue to be underestimated.