Oral

IAMAS

M16 - The Mechanism and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones

Forecasting the genesis frequency of the tropical cyclone in western north Pacific

The north western Pacific (WNP) is one of the most active tropical cyclone (TC) regions on the planet, and countries adjacent to the WNP are areas particularly vulnerable to TC activity, which can cause huge economic damages. Therefore, the accurate medium to long-range forecasting (more than several months ahead) of the TC activity in WNP will be helpful to the disaster mitigation and prevention. After Sparks and Toumi (2020) found that the ocean temperature in the subsurface of the Ni?o4 region is closely related to the TC frequency (TCF) landfalling in South China in the TC season (May-November), Liu et al. (2023) extended their study and found the the tropical oceanic thermocline temperature anomaly () at certain longitudes is also closely linked to the TCF landfalling in both South China and East China in the TC season. Furthermore, our latest study shows that the high correlations exist between the and the TC genesis frequency (TCGF) in the TC season over different areas of the WNP. For example, for the TCGF in the WNP area (0-40��N, 100-180��E), when the between 141-148��E leads the TCGF in the TC season about 21 months, the correlation coefficient r is as high as -0.71; when at 165��W leads the TCGF (in 0-40��N, 100-130��E) about 5 month (November in preceding year), r = -0.76, and when in April at 140��W, the correlation coefficient between and the TCGF in (0-40��N, 100-150��E) is r = -0.83. These extremely high correlations between at different longitudes and the TCGF over different areas, implying a physical process linking them together, which merits further investigation.